Poki Yoki — 90-Day Marketing Decision

Executive brief · should we launch with the classic DTC model, the free-game model, or both?

2026-06-13 · $15K media / 90 days · the 1-page summary of a 3-document research package

DECISION: Run classic DTC (Path B) as the engine — restructured around the Family SKU — with a small, stage-gated game test (Path A). Neither path is profitable in 90 days at $15K. Path B preserves cash & builds social proof; Path A is a measured bet on a long-term asset. Allocate ~70% to proven paid social (Family-led), ~20% to the game funnel as a test, ~10% to creative/influencer. The number that decides the game channel — the 90-day verified-mom→buyer rate — is unmeasured anywhere and costs <$2.5K to learn.

The two paths at Day 90 (corrected base)

Metric	B Classic	A Game
Orders	~270	~44
Revenue	$12.4K	$2.2K
Blended ROAS	0.83×	0.15×
Blended CAC	$55	$341
Cash at Day 90	~$10.6K	~$5.5K
Asset built	540 buyers	1,270 moms

Path A never overtakes Path B inside 90 days. Path B earns from Week 1; Path A earns ~nothing for 4–6 weeks, then builds.

Three insights that drive the call

1 · Lead with Family. Starter ($45) is first-order unprofitable above ~$22 CAC; Family ($85) is profitable below ~$43. Leading with Family shortens path-to-profit from Week 9–10 to Week 5–6. (Needs a Family restock first — ~5–6 units left.)

2 · Cash timing wins. ~$19.7K starting cash, ~4–6 mo runway. Earning in Week 1 (B) vs Week 6 (A) is the difference between reaching Day 180 and not.

3 · Precedent says "pay-first." Every proven "game sells product" case (Webkinz, McDonald's Monopoly, KFC) is pay-first/play-second. No proven case of a free game making cold, profitable buyers. The Arcade's real job is retention + repeat + warm retargeting, not cold acquisition.

The plan & the gates

$15K split	$
B Meta paid social (Family hero)	$9,000
B Creative production	$1,500
B Influencer seeding	$1,500
A Game traffic + promo (test)	$2,250
Buffer / holdout	$750

Stage-gates (run to thresholds, not calendar):

Day 30: B exited learning & Family ≥25% of orders? A: contamination OK & ≥1 mom purchase?
Day 60: B CAC <$40 → scale +20–30%. A invisible → move budget to B.
Day 90: Game list→buyer ≥5% → fund Path A. <3% twice → Arcade = retention asset, not acquisition.

Kill-switches: contamination >40% → stop A · Family <25% of orders → rebuild LP · k<0.1 → shift A→B.

Full package: Game-Funnel Strategy Dossier (the why) · The Next 90 Days, Two Paths (the analysis) · 90-Day Operating Plan (the execution). All in docs/marketing/. Bottom line: run B around Family, test A to a kill-switch, pace spend to the cash runway, and measure the verified-mom→buyer rate.